Statistics Profile

Owen Jarvis

2003

Penn State University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1610	908 - 2311	1610	1610
Épée	Direct elimination	2194	976 - 3411	2194	2194
Foil	Pool	1570	1000 - 2139	1570	2144
Foil	Direct elimination	1799	890 - 2707	1799	2104

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.