Statistics Profile

Xiangyi Chen

2010

High Desert Fencing Alliance

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	777	158 - 1395	777	777
Foil	Direct elimination	1538	379 - 2696	1538	1538
Saber	Pool	1116	360 - 1871	1116	1116
Saber	Direct elimination	1883	641 - 3124	1883	1883

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.