Statistics Profile

Dylan Guidry-Van Essen

2011

Smokey Mountain Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	976	569 - 1382	976	1234
Épée	Direct elimination	1534	829 - 2238	1411	1549
Foil	Pool	673	147 - 1198	608	673
Foil	Direct elimination	1314	141 - 2486	1314	1314

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.