Statistics Profile

Julia Meissner

2013

Northwest Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	772	500 - 1043	417	2954
Épée	Direct elimination	1305	745 - 1864	1049	1589
Foil	Pool	452	0 - 1163	452	1471
Foil	Direct elimination	1465	320 - 2609	1465	1465

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.