Statistics Profile

Oscar Kahler

2012

Smokey Mountain Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	638	0 - 1380	638	638
Épée	Direct elimination	1700	477 - 2922	1700	1700
Foil	Pool	1029	703 - 1354	727	1029
Foil	Direct elimination	1468	808 - 2127	1078	1468

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.