Statistics Profile

Sara Pan

2012

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2236	1533 - 2938	2236	3021
Épée	Direct elimination	2835	1956 - 3713	2835	3422
Foil	Pool	2095	1685 - 2504	1937	2552
Foil	Direct elimination	2035	1264 - 2805	1478	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.