Statistics Profile

Otto Bowen

2011

New Jersey Fencing Alliance

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	775	114 - 1435	775	1140
Épée	Direct elimination	2026	974 - 3077	2026	2295
Foil	Pool	1061	770 - 1351	679	1184
Foil	Direct elimination	971	376 - 1565	942	1299

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.