Statistics Profile

Jim Colby

2010

Blue Ridge Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1208	732 - 1683	809	1208
Foil	Direct elimination	1220	463 - 1976	1220	1444
Saber	Pool	582	0 - 1307	582	582
Saber	Direct elimination	1896	875 - 2916	1896	1896

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.