Statistics Profile

Michael Luckey

2006

Still Point Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1592	967 - 2216	1592	1592
Épée	Direct elimination	1993	1032 - 2953	1993	1993
Foil	Pool	1118	470 - 1765	1118	1118
Foil	Direct elimination	1787	860 - 2713	1787	1787

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.