Statistics Profile

Julia Tang

2016

Aura Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	890	571 - 1208	878	1261
Épée	Direct elimination	1674	728 - 2619	1674	1929
Saber	Pool	624	444 - 803	223	2311
Saber	Direct elimination	1184	880 - 1487	1108	1732

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.