Statistics Profile

Ashlyn Johnston

2010

Tidewater Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1224	904 - 1543	1224	2191
Épée	Direct elimination	1807	1285 - 2328	1672	1914
Foil	Pool	1115	848 - 1381	767	2640
Foil	Direct elimination	1471	927 - 2014	955	1971

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.