Statistics Profile

Scott Nixon

1989

Dragon Heart Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2279	2092 - 2465	2170	2639
Épée	Direct elimination	2471	2216 - 2725	2389	3223
Foil	Pool	2279	1576 - 2981	2279	3101
Foil	Direct elimination	1989	1103 - 2874	1989	2386

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.