Statistics Profile

Dennis Sullivan

2012

Vivo Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	971	703 - 1238	906	1466
Épée	Direct elimination	1509	1072 - 1945	1151	1831
Foil	Pool	-90	0 - 219	-236	-78
Foil	Direct elimination	1552	276 - 2827	1552	1552

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.