Statistics Profile

Dylan Obermeyer

2010

Mars Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1461	664 - 2257	1461	1461
Épée	Direct elimination	1754	483 - 3024	1754	1754
Foil	Pool	1412	595 - 2228	1412	1412
Foil	Direct elimination	1652	464 - 2839	1652	1652

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.