Statistics Profile

Ryan Silk

2006

College of William & Mary Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	665	0 - 1350	665	778
Épée	Direct elimination	1812	480 - 3143	1812	1812
Saber	Pool	951	705 - 1196	872	1197
Saber	Direct elimination	1367	879 - 1854	1155	1902

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.