Statistics Profile

Kent Chen

2005

University of South Florida Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1207	749 - 1664	1014	1207
Foil	Direct elimination	1394	615 - 2172	1394	1807
Saber	Pool	1365	510 - 2219	1365	1365
Saber	Direct elimination	1772	449 - 3094	1772	1772

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.