Statistics Profile

Jack Zhang

2009

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1562	879 - 2244	1562	1562
Foil	Direct elimination	1825	790 - 2859	1825	1825
Saber	Pool	1229	475 - 1982	1229	1229
Saber	Direct elimination	1617	444 - 2789	1617	1617

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.