Statistics Profile

Julian Mincey

2005

Clemson University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1253	738 - 1767	1253	1270
Foil	Direct elimination	1687	445 - 2928	1687	1875
Saber	Pool	1503	611 - 2394	1503	1503
Saber	Direct elimination	1765	533 - 2996	1765	1765

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.