Statistics Profile

Joe Click

2005

James Madison University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1227	628 - 1825	1227	1634
Foil	Direct elimination	1389	220 - 2557	1389	1389
Saber	Pool	837	458 - 1215	718	936
Saber	Direct elimination	1526	863 - 2188	1309	1880

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.