Statistics Profile

Kieran Holbrook

2015

East Bay Fencers Gym

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	89	0 - 720	89	1018
Épée	Direct elimination	1336	473 - 2198	1336	1699
Foil	Pool	547	50 - 1043	394	547
Foil	Direct elimination	1004	242 - 1765	735	1013

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.