Statistics Profile

Noah Marcus

2009

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1376	671 - 2080	1376	1376
Épée	Direct elimination	1968	628 - 3307	1968	1968
Foil	Pool	981	285 - 1676	981	981
Foil	Direct elimination	1793	463 - 3122	1793	1793
Saber	Pool	627	42 - 1211	627	777
Saber	Direct elimination	1369	282 - 2455	1369	1438

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.