Statistics Profile

Alexander Watkins (Xander)

2009

J.L. Mann Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1115	399 - 1830	1115	1115
Épée	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079
Foil	Pool	1006	729 - 1282	657	1116
Foil	Direct elimination	1407	812 - 2001	1125	1407
Saber	Pool	612	37 - 1186	612	870
Saber	Direct elimination	1140	143 - 2136	1140	1349

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.