Statistics Profile

Urban Thorson

2014

German Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	97	0 - 510	97	447
Épée	Direct elimination	1131	448 - 1813	1131	1885
Foil	Pool	1067	65 - 2068	1067	1067
Foil	Direct elimination	1920	628 - 3211	1920	1920

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.