Statistics Profile

Owen McCandlish

2010

Fencing Academy Of Philadelphia - North

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1212	1017 - 1406	638	1212
Épée	Direct elimination	1485	1114 - 1855	939	1812
Foil	Pool	487	0 - 1034	487	971
Foil	Direct elimination	1355	277 - 2432	1355	1931

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.