Statistics Profile

Stephen Lynch

2006

Xavier University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1027	223 - 1830	1027	1027
Épée	Direct elimination	1811	563 - 3058	1811	1811
Foil	Pool	1205	578 - 1831	1205	1205
Foil	Direct elimination	1826	908 - 2743	1826	1826

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.