Statistics Profile

Chris Koterba

2004

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1131	660 - 1601	1028	1398
Épée	Direct elimination	1207	248 - 2165	1207	2079
Saber	Pool	587	161 - 1012	587	943
Saber	Direct elimination	1394	598 - 2189	1173	1394

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.