Statistics Profile

Aidan McConnell

2006

University of Alabama

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1526	624 - 2427	1526	1526
Épée	Direct elimination	1718	515 - 2920	1718	1718
Foil	Pool	1165	770 - 1559	1134	1423
Foil	Direct elimination	1091	390 - 1791	1091	1493
Saber	Pool	964	381 - 1546	858	964
Saber	Direct elimination	1725	409 - 3040	1725	1725

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.