Statistics Profile

Josiah Kiker

2007

Florida Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1678	1306 - 2049	1678	1984
Épée	Direct elimination	1859	1160 - 2557	1859	1903
Foil	Pool	1686	799 - 2572	1686	1686
Foil	Direct elimination	2935	1620 - 4249	2935	2935
Saber	Pool	1484	408 - 2559	1484	1484
Saber	Direct elimination	1576	334 - 2817	1576	1576

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.