Statistics Profile

Owen Schefft

2015

Richmond Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1030	394 - 1665	896	1338
Foil	Direct elimination	2163	1037 - 3288	2163	2163
Saber	Pool	458	0 - 1090	458	458
Saber	Direct elimination	1527	370 - 2683	1527	1527

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.