Statistics Profile

Matthew Kwiatkowski

2004

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1197	787 - 1606	1197	1487
Foil	Direct elimination	1601	705 - 2496	1601	1911
Saber	Pool	1184	539 - 1828	1184	1184
Saber	Direct elimination	1763	544 - 2981	1763	1763

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.