Statistics Profile

Jason Zhou

2013

Cavalier Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1601	1177 - 2024	1601	2203
Épée	Direct elimination	2086	1511 - 2660	2086	2409
Foil	Pool	2967	1603 - 4330	2967	2967
Foil	Direct elimination	3193	1984 - 4401	3193	3193

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.