Statistics Profile

Erica Johnson

1998

The Fencing Club Of The University Of Idaho

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1506	934 - 2077	1377	1506
Épée	Direct elimination	1991	1040 - 2941	1991	1995
Foil	Pool	770	0 - 1698	770	770
Foil	Direct elimination	1466	402 - 2529	1466	1466

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.