Statistics Profile

Tobias Simpson

2007

University Of Tennessee Knoxville Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1304	558 - 2049	1304	1304
Épée	Direct elimination	1864	541 - 3186	1864	1864
Foil	Pool	1851	1263 - 2438	1682	1857
Foil	Direct elimination	1456	552 - 2359	1456	1852
Saber	Pool	1531	1021 - 2040	1531	1574
Saber	Direct elimination	1446	221 - 2670	1446	1446

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.