Statistics Profile

Aidan Gruner

2004

Gamecock Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1839	1081 - 2596	1839	1839
Épée	Direct elimination	1381	242 - 2519	1381	1381
Foil	Pool	670	228 - 1111	670	725
Foil	Direct elimination	861	59 - 1662	861	1491

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.