Statistics Profile

Arbor Vogel

2015

Grand Rapids Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	853	128 - 1577	853	853
Épée	Direct elimination	1332	194 - 2469	1332	1332
Foil	Pool	406	0 - 1099	406	406
Foil	Direct elimination	1375	195 - 2554	1375	1375

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.