Statistics Profile

Preston Chiu

2012

Shoreline Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	909	466 - 1351	810	1143
Épée	Direct elimination	1321	394 - 2247	1321	1650
Foil	Pool	364	0 - 954	364	364
Foil	Direct elimination	1723	527 - 2918	1723	1723

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.