Statistics Profile

Oliver Lyon

2013

Boise Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1523	957 - 2088	1523	2629
Épée	Direct elimination	2076	1238 - 2913	2076	3004
Foil	Pool	2068	1264 - 2871	2068	2068
Foil	Direct elimination	2345	1202 - 3487	2345	2345

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.