Statistics Profile

Chase Kelty

2006

Marquette Club Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2115	1137 - 3092	2115	2115
Épée	Direct elimination	1740	504 - 2975	1740	1740
Foil	Pool	669	0 - 1477	669	669
Foil	Direct elimination	1909	646 - 3171	1909	1909

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.