Statistics Profile

Eli Chester

2016

Precision Swordcraft Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2615	1647 - 3582	2615	2615
Épée	Direct elimination	2824	1661 - 3986	2223	2824
Foil	Pool	826	352 - 1299	826	963
Foil	Direct elimination	1786	600 - 2971	1786	1786

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.