Statistics Profile

Theo Lemme

2014

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	183	0 - 863	183	183
Épée	Direct elimination	1262	86 - 2437	1262	1262
Foil	Pool	426	0 - 1196	426	426
Foil	Direct elimination	1711	405 - 3016	1711	1711

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.