Statistics Profile

Cailan Grunigen

2011

Dublin Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	367	0 - 989	367	367
Foil	Direct elimination	1518	333 - 2702	1518	1518
Saber	Pool	910	437 - 1382	910	1349
Saber	Direct elimination	1769	975 - 2562	1769	2138

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.