Statistics Profile

John May

2006

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	871	102 - 1639	871	871
Épée	Direct elimination	1892	646 - 3137	1892	1892
Saber	Pool	810	42 - 1577	810	810
Saber	Direct elimination	2291	1207 - 3374	2291	2291

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.