Statistics Profile

Lucian Stevens

2007

Gamecock Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1337	642 - 2031	1337	1337
Épée	Direct elimination	1531	370 - 2691	1531	1531
Foil	Pool	1442	492 - 2391	1442	1442
Foil	Direct elimination	1829	480 - 3177	1829	1829

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.