Freehold Fencing's Open Epee

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, May 15, 2022 at 11:00 AM

Freehold Fencing Academy - Freehold, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SHAFAIE Ali	-	-	4%	31%	65%
2	ARAVIND Athreya	-	9%	36%	39%	14%	1%
3	AGAON Ethan	-	1%	12%	39%	41%	8%
3	BRENNAN Quinlan	-	1%	7%	30%	51%	12%
5	AGAON Shawn	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
5	CHATZIKALFAS Dimitris	-	-	-	5%	34%	61%
7	REZNICK Nicholas J.	-	-	-	3%	29%	68%
8	UPSHAW Micah	1%	9%	37%	38%	13%	1%
9	VISCONTI Andrew	29%	48%	21%	2%	< 1%
10	SCHAPIRO Jake	-	1%	11%	38%	40%	10%
11	MICHELS William	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
12	KRISHNAN Skanda	4%	23%	42%	26%	5%	-
13	LESSER Jeremy	4%	32%	44%	18%	2%	-
14	LI Jeffrey	-	1%	7%	30%	48%	14%
15	GANESAN Mathavan	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
16	KOVACS Wyatt	3%	19%	38%	30%	9%	1%
17	ACKLAND Matthew	5%	26%	41%	23%	4%	-
18	AGAON Evelyn	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
19	SHIN Sangjune	-	5%	29%	53%	13%
20	KUCHARCZYK Ryan	9%	38%	39%	13%	1%	-
21	BASRALIAN Azniv	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
22	WERR Tyler	11%	39%	40%	9%	1%
23	HALM Alexandra	9%	33%	39%	17%	2%	-
24	CAMPANELLA Michael	10%	34%	39%	15%	2%	-
25	KEENER Gerald	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
26	WEN Ethan	21%	44%	29%	6%	-
27	LEE Kevin	55%	38%	6%	-	-	-
28	KOPYLENKO Oksana	5%	25%	41%	25%	4%	-
29	BASRALIAN Lucine	8%	33%	40%	16%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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