The Cascade Clash | Portland SYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, February 26, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Beaverton, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CARRIER Gabriel A.	-	-	7%	28%	39%	22%	4%
2	TIKHOMIROV Theodore	-	4%	22%	41%	26%	5%
3	KIM Andrew J.	-	-	1%	11%	31%	39%	17%
3	ZHOU Justin	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
5	JIANG Leon	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
6	DAO Alexander	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	6%
7	LU Ivan	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
8	DU SHUNYU K.	-	8%	36%	40%	15%	2%
9	TREBON Hayden	-	-	3%	20%	45%	32%
10	PANG Lucas	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	28%
11	LOISEAU Eliott	-	1%	9%	33%	42%	15%
12	CHIN Dylan A.	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
13	KAO Yishane	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	12%
14	KIM Sullivan	1%	9%	35%	40%	13%	1%
15	RUBIN Daniel	-	-	1%	10%	30%	41%	18%
16	PARKS Isaac	1%	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%
17	GUAN Nathan	-	1%	12%	37%	40%	10%
18	JAIN Aditya	-	-	4%	26%	54%	16%
19	BORISENKO Samuel	13%	41%	33%	11%	2%	-
20	SHAN Junzhe	-	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
21	HAMZA Tudor	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
22	KIM Ian	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%
23	KIM Minjae	-	5%	25%	39%	25%	6%
24	YU Austin	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
25	STRONG David	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
26	JAIN Samyak	1%	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%
27	YUE Hongrui	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
28	LU Jacob	10%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%
29	SHA Michael	-	9%	37%	36%	14%	3%	-
30	NAEMI Barsam	2%	20%	41%	28%	8%	1%
31	HOGE William P.	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%
32	BAKKEN Archer	58%	37%	5%	-	-	-	-
33	LOISEAU Oscar	3%	32%	41%	20%	4%	-
34	DONG Haiyi	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
35	PARK Sangwook	3%	15%	32%	33%	16%	3%
36	RICHARDS Andrew	11%	51%	31%	7%	-	-
37	DODDAPANENI Aarav	12%	47%	33%	8%	1%	-
38	RAHMAN Yousef	22%	55%	20%	3%	-	-	-
39	CHOI Zachary	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
40	WAGHOLIKAR Prathit	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-
40	GUO Woody	61%	33%	5%	-	-	-
42	RAHMAN Zayd	42%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
43	MEHROTRA Dhruv	73%	25%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.