Richmond Winter RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Greater Richmond Convention Center - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Jonah	-	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%
2	HUANG Eythan	1%	10%	33%	39%	15%	1%
3	LEVY Jacob	-	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
3	TIKHAEV Alexander	-	-	-	5%	33%	45%	16%
5	TANG Alexander L.	-	3%	13%	31%	34%	16%	3%
6	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	28%
7	SHENG Dalton	-	-	1%	8%	38%	41%	12%
8	ROSE Ben	-	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	18%
9	MAO Lucas	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	11%
10	LEE Brendan	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
11	TANG Albert	-	2%	14%	35%	33%	14%	2%
12	YAO Bradley	-	-	-	1%	15%	45%	39%
13	GRIFFITH MCALLISTER thomas	4%	22%	37%	26%	9%	1%	-
14	LI Matthew	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	22%
15	TSAO Lukas	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
16	YAP Nathan	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
17	TANG August L.	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
18	ZHAO Adam	3%	16%	34%	31%	13%	2%
19	LI Lianhan	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
20	SEMP Iain	2%	18%	36%	31%	11%	2%
21	WANG Winston	-	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
22	JIANG Bowang	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	4%	-
23	SONG Austin	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
24	LIU Ryan	1%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
25	BOWLES Kevin	3%	25%	45%	24%	3%	-	-
26	YU William	34%	51%	14%	2%	-	-	-
27	RILEY Colin T.	11%	40%	36%	12%	1%	-	-
28	LEE Ethan	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
29	VADEN Oliver	3%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
30	PARRISH Evan	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
31	PAN Edwin	50%	38%	11%	2%	-	-
32	ZAIDI Adil	52%	39%	8%	1%	-	-	-
33	KOKE Matthew C.	1%	13%	39%	38%	9%	1%	-
34	HARTMAN Grayson	37%	41%	18%	4%	-	-	-
35	HARPER Wesley	-	4%	23%	37%	26%	9%	1%
36	LARSON Winston	< 1%	2%	17%	39%	33%	8%
37	ZHANG Alex	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
38	NOLAN Tyler	16%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-
39	SHAW Spencer	38%	46%	14%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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