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SoCal Scholastic Fencing League Individual Foil #2

Men's High School Foil

Sunday, February 6, 2022 at 9:00 AM

Chaminade High School - Los Angeles, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHI Alexander	-	-	4%	22%	41%	28%	5%
2	PIESNER Zachary C.	-	1%	5%	19%	37%	31%	7%
3	SCHULZE-KALT Graydon L.	-	-	-	-	6%	38%	56%
3	REDDINGTON Aidan	-	-	5%	25%	47%	22%
5	DE LA FUENTE Ian	-	2%	12%	28%	35%	19%	4%
6	LAKE Wyatt J.	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	2%
7	HUANG Kevin D.	-	-	5%	24%	47%	23%
8	HUANG Alston	11%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
9	NGUYEN Liam	-	1%	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%
10	HAHN Jacob	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	< 1%	-
11	MESERVE Max	-	-	2%	17%	50%	31%
12	BUTLER Owen	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
13	DALVA Michael	25%	43%	25%	7%	1%	-
14	BRENNAN Ty	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
15	HARRIS Rhonen	1%	9%	28%	38%	20%	4%
16	CHIN Yit-Meng	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
17	STEIGLITZ Matthew	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
18	NA Larry	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%	-
19	RAMOS Russell K.	-	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
20	GHOTANIAN Marc	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
21	ORNELAS Matteo	8%	44%	40%	8%	-	-
22	KUO Jayden	-	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
23	YORK Lucas	-	-	6%	26%	41%	23%	4%
24	GALAVIZ MacArthur	1%	9%	27%	37%	21%	5%	-
25	MARKS Ryan	8%	32%	38%	19%	4%	-
26	GRAPHIA Gabriel	21%	60%	18%	1%	-	-	-
27	SMITH Jeremiah	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	29%	8%
28	REECE Chapin	6%	24%	34%	25%	9%	2%	-
29	RIORDAN Micah	7%	29%	41%	20%	4%	-
30	CONWAY Matthew	-	4%	20%	37%	29%	8%	-
31	CROUTCH Justin	26%	45%	24%	5%	-	-	-
32	HORWATT Eliyah	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
33	MYERS Kevin	-	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	10%
34	SOSTCHEN Jacob	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
35	WALTHERS Bjorn	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
36	GONZALEZ Pablo	-	-	1%	7%	29%	45%	19%
37	WACZIARG Simon	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	3%	-
38	DESPRES Kaz	-	6%	29%	44%	19%	2%
39	LEWIS Jake	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
40	CROUTCH Ethan	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	27%	3%
41	NORDEN Max	1%	8%	28%	40%	22%	2%
42	DAY Avo	5%	26%	42%	23%	4%	-
43	THORNTON Maximilian	5%	23%	35%	26%	9%	2%	-
44	PERDIGAO Cooper	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-
45	JUAREZ Semaje	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
46	SAUTER Luke	62%	34%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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