Garden State RYC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 2:45 PM

The Sportsplex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SIMONOV Timofey	-	-	-	2%	19%	79%
2	CHENG Logan	-	5%	23%	43%	29%
3	MO Ethan	-	-	6%	31%	51%	12%
3	HOU Gaven	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
5	ZHAO Ryan	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
6	REN Ryan	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
7	GRIGORIEV Michael	-	6%	25%	41%	25%	4%
8	YU Haochen	1%	12%	33%	36%	15%	2%
9	LU Hansen	2%	16%	37%	34%	10%
10	NOVIKOV Yann	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
11	KIAYIAS Alexander	49%	40%	9%	1%	-	-
12	WANG Ancen	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%	-
13	KINGSLEY Griffin	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%
14	JAZWINSKI Ryan	4%	26%	41%	23%	5%	-
15	ZHANG Zijie	1%	8%	28%	38%	22%	4%
16	BAS Jonathan	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	-
17	KO Caleb	7%	27%	39%	23%	5%
18	ZHAI Derrick	-	2%	15%	37%	36%	10%
19	BEYDOUN Sam	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	1%
20	SHARMA Ari	-	2%	15%	43%	34%	7%
21	MA Lucas	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-
22	NABASSOUA Djibril	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%
23	BAI Austin	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	13%
24	JIANG Kody	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
25	KIAYIAS Anthony	20%	41%	30%	8%	1%
26	CONVERSO-PARSONS Alexander	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
27	ULYSSE Jacob	13%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-
28	SHOU Raymond	6%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
29	PITERBARG Lev	3%	23%	42%	26%	6%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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