2022 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Junior Men's Foil

Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 8:00 AM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LIN James G.	-	1%	9%	31%	40%	18%
2	LE Vyn A.	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
3	PO Oliver	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	21%
3	BOLAÑOS CAMACHO Alejandro	-	-	1%	10%	38%	52%
5	KLEIN Sebastian W.	-	3%	20%	44%	27%	5%
6	AUGUSTINE Aaron A.	1%	13%	36%	38%	12%
7	LANG Dong Lin	-	-	5%	25%	46%	24%
8	BROWN Alexander R.	-	3%	18%	40%	33%	6%
9	MATSAKH Philip	1%	10%	35%	38%	14%	1%
10	DEGREMONT Henri S.	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
11	TSAI Max W.	-	7%	31%	40%	19%	3%
12	GUO Justin	-	6%	29%	42%	20%	2%
13	TORRES Treston	-	7%	28%	41%	21%	3%
14	PITERBARG Maxim	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	8%
15	MURRAY Maximo	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
16	ORVANANOS Jorge	-	2%	18%	41%	33%	6%
17	SYOMICHEV Gleb A.	5%	27%	41%	22%	4%
18	KALIPERSAD Neil A.	14%	39%	35%	12%	1%
19	REZA Farazi	2%	22%	43%	26%	6%	1%
20	WU Michael	3%	23%	45%	24%	5%	-
21	LI Ayren	31%	44%	21%	4%	-
22	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	7%	38%	39%	14%	2%	-
23	POPE Alexander	15%	50%	28%	6%	1%	-
24	DALBERG Anders	39%	43%	16%	2%	-	-
25	KANDADAI Arjun	41%	44%	14%	2%	-	-
26	CASELLINI Matteo	65%	30%	4%	-	-	-
27	MELE-KEAN Forrest	22%	48%	24%	5%	-	-
28	D'ANNA Luca	12%	40%	36%	11%	1%	-
28	CARREYROU Jack	57%	36%	6%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.