American Challenge South ROC/RJCC/RYC

Junior Men's Saber

Monday, September 5, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Orange County Convention Center - Hall WD1 - Orlando, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Minghan	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
2	MARGULIES William	-	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	27%
3	CHAVES Matthew J.	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	28%
3	FENG Leo	-	-	5%	24%	44%	26%
5	GUAN Luke	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	17%
6	XUE ALEXANDER	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	42%
7	LINDHOLM Oliver S.	-	-	6%	27%	45%	21%
8	BONSELL Vance	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
9	HONG Steven	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
10	EICHHORN Lukas H.	-	-	3%	19%	46%	33%
11	GRAINGER Graeme	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	3%	-
12	LIN Steve	2%	16%	34%	31%	14%	3%	-
13	ZHANG Ethan W.	1%	10%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-
14	DUPREE Thomas	1%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
15	MAHAPATRA SAMARTH	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
16	TIAGI Daniel	33%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
17	PAN Alex	-	-	1%	9%	31%	45%	15%
18	TONG ZACHARY	-	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	23%
19	DUDNICK Christian	3%	26%	44%	22%	4%	-
20	HOTHA Nikhil	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
21	SHANKWILER Christopher	-	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
22	SHI Jeremy	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	8%	1%
23	THORNHILL Kwasi	-	4%	22%	42%	27%	5%
24	WU Richard	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
25	GUAN Dennis	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
26	BALLOU Johnathan	8%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
27	LANNAMAN Connor	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%	1%
28	LIU Lawrence	-	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
29	ZHANG Derek	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
30	DECK Tyson	14%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
31	CHEN Samuel	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
32	KUSANAGI Soshi	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-
33	FANG Eason	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	4%	-
34	SUN Bill	19%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
35	STORER Julian	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-
36	ZHAO ERIC	7%	39%	39%	13%	1%	-
37	EMILIANI Andres	7%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-	-
38	CONTRERAS Ismael	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
39	DE SOUZA CABRERO Yorrick	30%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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